Maybe next year we’ll turn towards recency a little sooner. It was an absolute roller coaster getting there, but we’ll take it. First RoundĪn absolutely massive night to close out the season puts us at +20 units on the year. The line above assume they’re out so there might be a Rangers edge if they indeed play, but I’ll probably sit this one out. No edge for tonight’s game, though the lack of Ryan Strome and Filip Chitil already feels dicey. If you see a different line The Kelly Criterion calculator linked above is still the go-to. Recommended stake sizes will be included to make life easier for some of you, but those will be based on Bet MGM lines at time of posting. While the model’s picks have been profitable in the past, there is no guarantee it will always be profitable – please don’t bet any money you’re uncomfortable losing.įor optimal betting strategy, I would recommend plugging each probability into a Kelly Criterion calculator with a Kelly multiplier of 0.35 (full Kelly is a bit too aggressive for a sport as variant as hockey). It sums up the basic tricks of the trade and I urge you to read. This page will be updated each morning between 10:00 am and 12:00 pmįor those unfamiliar with betting, I wrote a guide a few years ago that still holds up. You can read more about GSVA and the model here. Each team’s projected strength is based on the projected value of the players on its roster based on Game Score Valued Added (GSVA). The game probabilities take into account each team’s strength (based on projected rosters), home ice and rest. Welcome to our daily game probabilities page where you will find the win probability for each of the night’s games, as well as betting advice based on how those probabilities compare to marketplace odds.
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